Are Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd.’s (SHSE:603099) Fundamentals Good Enough to Warrant Buying Given The Stock’s Recent Weakness?

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With its stock down 22% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Changbai Mountain Tourism (SHSE:603099). However, the company’s fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Specifically, we decided to study Changbai Mountain Tourism’s ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Changbai Mountain Tourism

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Changbai Mountain Tourism is:

13% = CN¥138m ÷ CN¥1.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The ‘return’ is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CN¥1 of shareholders’ capital it has, the company made CN¥0.13 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company’s future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or “retains” for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don’t necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Changbai Mountain Tourism’s Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

At first glance, Changbai Mountain Tourism seems to have a decent ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 8.3% the company’s ROE looks pretty impressive. For this reason, Changbai Mountain Tourism’s five year net income decline of 15% raises the question as to why the high ROE didn’t translate into earnings growth. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven’t been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company’s growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

Next, we compared Changbai Mountain Tourism’s performance against the industry and found that the industry shrunk its earnings at 24% in the same period, which suggests that the company’s earnings have been shrinking at a slower rate than its industry, This does appease the negative sentiment around the company to a certain extent.

past-earnings-growth
SHSE:603099 Past Earnings Growth April 14th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. Is Changbai Mountain Tourism fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Changbai Mountain Tourism Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Changbai Mountain Tourism’s low three-year median payout ratio of 15% (or a retention ratio of 85%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company’s earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For instance, the business has faced some headwinds.

Additionally, Changbai Mountain Tourism has paid dividends over a period of nine years, which means that the company’s management is rather focused on keeping up its dividend payments, regardless of the shrinking earnings. Upon studying the latest analysts’ consensus data, we found that the company’s future payout ratio is expected to rise to 25% over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Changbai Mountain Tourism’s future ROE will rise to 17% even though the the company’s payout ratio is expected to rise. We presume that there could some other characteristics of the business that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company’s ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Changbai Mountain Tourism has some positive attributes. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that’s preventing growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company’s fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst’s forecasts page for the company.

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether Changbai Mountain Tourism is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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